From the 66 entries in the Lazy Portfolio Smackdown game, I have taken 19 portfolios in which all component funds existed back on 1 August 2000 through 31 January 2008 and computed their Return vs. Risk profile. To see the components of each portfolio, go to the Portfolios page and find the ID number for the portfolio. [Note, in some cases I substituted regular index funds for Admiral shares, mutual funds for their ETF equivalent, or other similar but not identical funds... such as VGSIX for FIREX in one case. And on lew's portfolio I cheated and started PCRIX (PIMCO CommodityRealRet Strat Instl) on 1 Jan 2003.]
Funny to see that the portfolio with the second highest returns (12.7% (risk 13.9%)) consists of just two funds:
BigD53: 50% target retirement income (VTINX), and 50% Wellington (VWELX).
Simplicity works
-- Daniel
Also, the third highest return portfolio (11.4% (risk 10.6%)) consists of a fairly standard small-value tilted slice and dice portfolio (but is 100% equity).
btw. poulinbob's highest return Portfolio (16.7%, risk 19.5%) is 33% precious metals which seems a bit too risky for real money )
daniel wrote:Funny to see that the portfolio with the second highest returns (12.7% (risk 13.9%)) consists of just two funds:
BigD53: 50% target retirement income (VTINX), and 50% Wellington (VWELX).
Contrats, you have found the first (of probably many) errors. The ID number 41 was correct, but the portfolio belongs to Kevin Ucker and not BigD53. I'll make the change and update.
And the portfolio has more than 2 funds:
DFA U.S. Small Cap Value I DFSVX 25%
DFA Real Estate Securities I DFREX 25%
DFA U.S. Micro Cap I DFSCX 20%
DFA U.S. Large Cap Value I DFLVX 15%
DFA Intl Small Cap Value I DISVX 15%
Ariel wrote:You're missing my 100% Wellesley portfolio!
It appears that Yahoo thinks that fund started on 16 May 2001, so I wasn't able to get historical quotes going back as far as I wanted to go.
Hi Paul,
The Wellesley fund has been a round a lot longer than 2001. But to eke out that extra one-tenth of one-percent, I listed the admiral fund. Here's the symbol and yahoo link for the regular (non-admiral) version, which should be close enough. Of course, you could add an extra 0.1% to its annualized returns, while leaving its volatility the same, to capture the performance bonus of the admiral version.
Ariel wrote:
The Wellesley fund has been a round a lot longer than 2001. But to eke out that extra one-tenth of one-percent, I listed the admiral fund. Here's the symbol and yahoo link for the regular (non-admiral) version, which should be close enough. Of course, you could add an extra 0.1% to its annualized returns, while leaving its volatility the same, to capture the performance bonus of the admiral version.
Can you include the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio (as discussed elsewhere in this folder)?
25% Stock - iShares Russell 3000 (Ticker: IWV) or Vanguard (Ticker: VTI).
25% Long Term Treasury Bonds - iShares Long Term Treasury (Ticker: TLT).
25% Cash - A treasury money market fund
25% Gold - iShares Gold Trust (Ticker: IAU)
Sounds like fun, but I've always had trouble with a good ticker symbol for cash. Seriously! Is there a good ticker that is in Yahoo! Historical Quotes for cash?
craigr suggested SHY in his post on the Harry Browne topic. He then said a money market fund (like VMPXX) would be a better CAGR. When I checked, I see your problem, the MMF does not have historical quotes in Yahoo. But SHY does. It's not "cash" but it's close? I'll look for something better but I assume if you've never found it, I won't.
EDIT: Oooo, what about BIL? I don't know how it operates, since bills are sold at a discount and don't pay "interest" per se.
snowman9000 wrote:craigr suggested SHY in his post on the Harry Browne topic. He then said a money market fund (like VMPXX) would be a better CAGR. When I checked, I see your problem, the MMF does not have historical quotes in Yahoo. But SHY does. It's not "cash" but it's close? I'll look for something better but I assume if you've never found it, I won't.
EDIT: Oooo, what about BIL? I don't know how it operates, since bills are sold at a discount and don't pay "interest" per se.
snowman9000 wrote:craigr suggested SHY in his post on the Harry Browne topic. He then said a money market fund (like VMPXX) would be a better CAGR. When I checked, I see your problem, the MMF does not have historical quotes in Yahoo. But SHY does. It's not "cash" but it's close? I'll look for something better but I assume if you've never found it, I won't.
EDIT: Oooo, what about BIL? I don't know how it operates, since bills are sold at a discount and don't pay "interest" per se.
Since the quarterly returns are posted on Vanguard's site, I would think a reasonable thing to do would be to interpolate from that. Not exact, but probably good enough, since it's only the interest rate that varies, not the NAV.